The Week Ahead: Expect a Sharp Move
India & Global Macro: Nifty, Sector Indices, S&P 500, Gold, Crude, Stocks
The week ahead, broken down in 11 charts — where the markets stand, what the charts are signaling, and the levels that matter most.
1. Nifty: 24,334 (+0.53%)
The index is witnessing consolidation for the last five weeks.
On daily Bollinger Bands, there is a squeeze, suggesting the index should see a sharp move.
The base around the 50 DMA at 23,831 is a strong intraweek support.
On the upside, the index can test resistance around the swing high at 24,530.
A breakout above the swing high can trigger an upswing.
Expect tests of higher levels.
Nifty Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
Weekly Support: 24,051 - 24,000 - 23,831
Weekly Resistance: 24,530 - 24,598 - 24,847
2. Bank Nifty: 58,521 (+0.82%)
The index is witnessing consolidation for the last five weeks.
On daily Bollinger Bands, there is a squeeze, suggesting the index should see a sharp move.
On the weekly chart, the index has posted an inside week.
The five-week consolidation band is in the range of 56,549 - 58,706.
The index is trading around the upper end of the consolidation band.
A breakout above 58,706 should trigger an upswing towards higher levels.
Expect an upswing above 58,706.
Bank Nifty Weekly Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
Weekly Support: 57,881 - 57,350 - 56,549
Weekly Resistance: 58,706 - 59,300 - 59,805
3. Nifty MidCap 100: 62,428 (-0.97%)
The index is consolidating with resistance around the 63,100 level.
The daily RSI is showing signs of negative divergence.
Consolidation can be expected until a close above 63,200 is seen.
On the downside, support is around 60,800 - 61,300.
Strength only on a break above 63,200.
Nifty MidCap 100 Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
Weekly Support: 61,972 - 61,300 - 60,800
Weekly Resistance: 62,790 - 63,183 (ATH)
4. Nifty Auto Index: 27,099 (+0.89%)
The index has been consolidating for the last fourteen weeks.
The established short-term trading range is 26,067 - 27,533.
Prices are whipsawing around the 200 DMA at 26,841, within the consolidation band.
Resistance is around 27,533.
A breakout above 27,533 can trigger a trending move on the upside.
Support is around the 200 and 50 DMA cluster in the range of 26,483 - 26,841.
Expect range-bound consolidation to continue.
Traders can expect a directional move only on a breakout above the consolidation band.
Nifty Auto Index Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
Weekly Support: 26,841 - 26,483 - 26,061
Weekly Resistance: 27,452 - 27,533 - 27,951
5. Nifty IT Index: 29,226 (+4.34%)
The index continues its downswing on higher timeframe charts, with a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
On the daily chart, the index is witnessing a pullback.
The pullback can test higher levels around the falling channel high at 29,800.
Higher resistance is around 31,290.
Support is around the swing low at 28,223.
Lower support is around the 20 DMA at 27,647.
Expect a pullback towards 29,800.
Nifty IT Index Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
Weekly Support: 28,700 - 28,223 - 27,647
Weekly Resistance: 29,800 - 30,620 - 31,290
6. Nifty Pharma Index: 25,645 (-0.11%)
The index is in a short-term consolidation.
The consolidation range is 25,308 - 26,135.
A breakout from the consolidation band can trigger a short-term trending move.
Lower support is around 24,900.
Traders can expect support on intraweek declines.
Nifty Pharma Index Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
Weekly Support: 25,308 - 24,900 - 24,825
Weekly Resistance: 25,974 - 26,135
7. S&P 500: 7,457 (-1.55%)
The index is trading in a range, both in the short term and medium term.
The medium-term trading range is 7,237 - 7,577.
The short-term trading range is 7,421 - 7,577.
Prices are currently trading around the lower end of the range.
A break below 7,421 can lead to tests of lower levels.
Resistance is around 7,500.
Expect a range-bound move with intraweek volatility.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
Commodities
8. Gold Comex: 4,018 (-2.31%)
Gold prices are trading in a consolidation range of 3,955 - 4,215.
Prices are trading around the support base in the range of 3,901 - 3,988.
Prices are oversold around current levels.
Resistance is around 4,091 (20 DMA).
Expect support around 4,000.
Gold Comex Futures Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
9. Crude Nymex: 81.78 (+14.52%)
Crude prices are in a short-term upswing.
Prices are retracing the last leg of the decline from 97 to 67.
The 50% retracement level is at 82, and the 62% retracement level is at 86.
Support is around 77; lower support is around 71.
Expect retracement towards 82 - 86.
Crude Nymex Futures Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
Stocks in Spotlight
10. Reliance: 1,327 (+1.48%)
Prices have seen a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern.
The breakout level at 1,310 is a support.
On the upside, resistance is around 1,371.
Expect higher levels.
Reliance Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
11. M&M Finance: 324 (-4.88%)
Prices are trading around the support base.
The support base is in the range of 306 - 318.
Resistance is around the 200 DMA at 329.
A breakout above 329 can trigger higher levels.
Higher resistance is around 347.
Expect an upswing above the 200 DMA.
M&M Finance Daily Chart
Chart Source: TradingView
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About the author- Mr. Hitesh Chotalia has over 26 years of experience in the financial markets. He’s worked as a Technical Market Strategist with Sharekhan, Citi Global Markets (Asia Pacific Equity Research), and Centrum Broking.
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Very useful analysis...